Monday 31 December 2012

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Monday December 31st, 19:30 ET (00:30 GMT)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
(8)LSU Tigers vs. (14)Clemson Tigers

The Chick-fil-A Bowl was incepted in 1968 as the Peach Bowl and has been played in Atlanta ever since. It moved to the Georgia Dome when it was finished in 1992. Chick-fil-A stepped in as title sponsors in 1998 and retained the Peach Bowl title until 2006 when it was also dropped. It currently features the first non-BCS team from the ACC and the 5th team from the SEC, however as the SEC has sent one of it's teams to the National Championship game every season since 2006, the Chick-fil-A Bowl has accepted the 6th selection from the nation's best conference. Last year Auburn won the game, defeating Virginia but neither of those teams got anywhere near any Bowls this season.

LSU were once again impressive this season, and despite the obvious disappointment of being the first team shut out in the BCS National Championship game last season they only lost twice. Their two losses came in the SEC to (2)Alabama and (3)Florida. They compiled ten wins for the third year in a row including beating (9)Texas A&M and (10)South Carolina. Les Miles' squad once again built their success on a strong defense and as a result, they only gave up more than 25 points once. They finished 11th in the country conceding 16.9 points per game and a miserly 296.2 yards of total offense. Although the offense won't show up on any national top 20 lists, they've done the job well and allowed the defense to win games. Junior quarterback Zach Mettenberger has done enough in those games passing for 2489 yards and 11 TDs while only coughing the ball up 6 times. The worrying thing for LSU fans is that he's been sacked 26 times, and sometimes they hurt. Jeremy Hill has added 621 yards on 130 carries for 10 touchdowns and Kenny Hilliard has added another 456 yards and 6 touchdowns. On the outside sophomore receiver Odell Beckham has snagged 673 yards and 2 TDs while his fellow sophomore Jarvis Landry has 536 yards and another 4 TDs. Still, LSU's success is their defense and that will be the case on Monday night.

Clemson have been equally successful this season, finishing 10-2 in the ACC and only missed out on the title game when they lost their last game of the regular season to (10)South Carolina, as a result (12)Florida State head to the Orange Bowl and Clemson end up here. They also lost to the Seminoles early in the season and bounced back to win seven straight to record their first 10 win season in over 30 years. Tajh Boyd has been incredible for the Tigers and despite his numbers being down on last season, his 3550 yards put him 14th in the country and his 34 TDs (T-6th) and 168.53 passer rating (4th) are equally impressive. He's added 9 rushing TDs and those 43 total TDs tie him with Orange Bowl-bound Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch and Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Boyd's favorite target has been Deandre Hopkins, he's hit the junior WR for 1214 yards and 16 touchdowns. Tailback Andre Ellington has churned up 1031 yards and 8 TDs to propel the running game and he gives the Tigers a lot of options in the redzone. As you'd expect with those numbers, Clemson are high in the national rankings, their 518.3 total yards per game (9th) and 42.3 points per game (6th) are almost the mirror of LSU's numbers, so this could turn into the classic offense v defense match-up.

FOR LSU TO WIN
Hit Boyd as often as possible and stop him running all over them. If they allow Boyd time, he'll pick the much vaunted Tigers secondary apart. Clemson struggled against South Carolina because of their tight coverage and tough play up front. If they can contain Boyd, they take away most of the scoring on this team and control this game the way they've controlled most of their schedule and grind out the win.

FOR CLEMSON TO WIN
Tajh Boyd is obviously the key to their offense, and the Tigers need him to step up. He may have considered forgoing his final year of college to enter the NFL, but he might have some Matt Barkley style unfinished business next year. The running game takes on more importance as LSU try to strangle Boyd and as the game develops, play-action becomes more important in moving down the field. The Clemson defensive line should be ready for a lot of run blocking as the SEC runs the ball more than any other BCS conference. If they can hold LSU to under 160 rushing yards (Clemson's average defensive figure) then they may have a chance of nicking this one.

VERDICT
As good as Clemson's offense is, I expect this to be a defensive battle. Tajh Boyd has to pick his spots to air it out as the LSU secondary is one of the best in the FBS. There will be a lot of running in the game as you'd expect from LSU and if Clemson get frustrated, they will play into LSU's hands. The purple Tigers want to be in a ball fight and they are well seasoned by playing in the SEC. I don't think Boyd is yet at the level to win this game on his own, especially with the attention LSU's front four will give him. Expect to see him on his backside 4 or 5 times in this one.

ADVICE
LSU -5
Under 59 points

DRINKING GAME
1 drink: Somebody mixes up the Tigers with the Tigers
2 drinks: Les Miles smiles
Finish it: LSU's total offensive yards are more than Tajh Boyd's

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