Allstate Sugar Bowl

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Wednesday January 2nd, 19:30 CST (01:30 GMT)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
(3)Florida Gators vs. (21)Louisville Cardinals

The Sugar Bowl was first played in 1935 and shares it's status as the second oldest college Bowl with the Sun Bowl and the Orange Bowl. It has been played in Louisiana since it's inception except in 2006, when in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, it was moved to the Georgia Dome. The Bowl has almost always featured a side from the SEC and currently it placed the highest ranked SEC team not in the BCS National Championship game versus the highest ranked Big East team. Starting 2015, it will feature an SEC vs. Big-12 match-up. Last year's game was only the sixth game since World War 2 without an SEC representative as both Alabama and LSU qualified for the National Championship game and each conference is only allowed 2 BCS representatives.

Florida (11-1) remain one of the best programs in the country and have yet again recorded a double digit win season, their fourth in seven years, and along the way knocked off (9)Texas A&M, (8)LSU, (10)South Carolina and (12)Florida State with their only loss coming to Georgia, which eventually cost them a shot at the conference title and the BCS National Championship. Quarterback Jeff Driskell has thrown for 1471 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 404 yards rushing. He's only thrown three interceptions and knows the value of ball security, especially in such a tough defensive conference as the SEC. Mike Gillislee was named to the All-SEC team at running back this year, and he's done the majority of the work at the position, accumulating 1104 yards and 10 touchdowns. Gillislee was the key in the Gators' rivalry game with Florida State as he rushed for 140 yards and two scores as Florida recorded a well deserved 37-26 win against the Seminoles. That is significant as the Cardinals defense ranks 51st in the country against the run and gives up an average of 151.1 yards per game. That could be the difference in this game as Florida does not have much of a vertical threat when throwing the ball, with Jordan Reed leading the Gators in yards with a mere 552. What Florida has always done and will continue to do well is defend. The Gators possess the 5th best defense in the country in terms of yardage yielded at 282.6 yards per game and the third best scoring defense with their opponents grabbing an average of 12.9 points. Nine times this season, Florida have held their opponents to 2 touchdowns or less in a game and they've only allowed 5 passing touchdowns all year, which will come in handy against this pass-oriented Louisville attack.

Louisville (10-2) finished in a four-way share of the Big East conference title with Cincinnati, Rutgers and Syracuse but held the tie-breakers to make it to the BCS for the second time in their history and the first time since they beat Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl in 2007, significant as it was the last game for the Cardinals under the tutelage of Bobby Petrino. In this year's schedule, they beat Cincinnati and Rutgers, well that's pretty much it. The rest of their schedule wasn't worth much, and more important to this game was their two losses. They were lit up in Syracuse 45-26 then dropped their following game 23-20 after the third overtime to UConn, yes UConn who lost to 4-7 Temple and 3-9 South Florida. While Head Coach Charlie Strong has improved the program to the point where they take some attention away from the basketball team, this college is still a basketball school. Strong spent 6 years in Gainesville with the Gators and coached the defense that won two National Championships in 2006 and 2008. Strong's offense this year is led by Teddy Bridgewater who passed for 3452 yards and 25 touchdowns despite breaking his non-throwing left wrist in that hapless loss to UConn. Bridgewater has connected with Devante Parker for 9 touchdowns this season as well as 712 yards, and although he is a threat downfield, Florida have two of the best safeties in the game in Josh Evans and Matt Elam, so if either cornerback is having trouble, they will be able to get plenty of help from their safety. Running the ball hasn't been a great such for Louisville as they rank a lowly 100th in the FBS in yards per game with 127.1, however they have two back with over 700 yards this season, Jeremy Wright has 740 yards and 9 TDs and will get the start on Wednesday while Senorise Perry gained 705 yards and 11 touchdowns before ending his season with a cruciate ligament injury in the loss to the Huskies. They will face the 12th ranked passing defense and 6th ranked rushing defense in this game so however they decide to approach offense, it's going to be tough.

FOR FLORIDA TO WIN
Shut it down. The Cardinals have relied on their passing game this season and Matt Elam at safety for the Gators was named as an All-American. Only a junior, he had 4 interceptions this season and reads the game as well as any defensive back I've seen this season. Florida can run the ball exceptionally well and with such a miserly defense to back them up, if they can contain the passing game of Louisville, they will walk away with a pretty simple win.

FOR LOUISVILLE TO WIN
They have to be ready for battle, a good old fashioned battle with a tough Florida defense. Instead of trying to pick the killer pass early, Bridgewater needs to make the read and take what the Gators give him, if that's 3 yards to the tight end, that will do. If he needs to keep a hold of the ball and run out of bounds for a yard, sure that'll work. He can't allow himself to get caught up in the game and try too hard as that's where mistakes happen. Jeremy Wright has developed into a good back this season, and Bridgewater needs to use him to take some of the pressure off himself. If the Cardinals can establish a run game against a team that gives up 96 yards a game, then they might just have a chance of winning this.

VERDICT
I think Florida is simply a better football team, they are better coached, more disciplined and well-seasoned by a tough schedule and some of the most demanding fans in the country. They can't afford to let those fans down, and they won't. Florida's defense will stifle the Cardinals passing game, and Gillislee will pound the Louisville front seven into submission. This will be a hard game for Florida, but with the precision of Jeff Driskell, they'll march on down the field time after time and put Louisville away comfortably before running down the clock and starting to prepare for next season.

ADVICE
Florida -14
Under 46 points

DRINKING GAME
1 drink: Any mention of top notch asshole Bobby Petrino
2 drinks: A sign in the crowd makes reference to Urban Meyer
Finish it: Danny Wuerffel appears.