Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Thursday January 3rd, 18:30 CST (01:30 GMT)
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
(4)Oregon Ducks vs. (5)Kansas State Wildcats

The Fiesta Bowl was incepted in 1971 and has been played in Arizona ever since, moving from Sun Devil Stadium to it's current location in 2007 when the University of Phoenix Stadium was completed and the following year it hosted Superbowl XLII. While in it's early years the Fiesta Bowl had tie-ins with the WAC and PAC-12, since the formation of the Big-12 in 1996, their champions have been represented in this Bowl where eligible. Last year we saw Oklahoma State take on BCS at-large Stanford in Andrew Luck's last game as a collegiate athlete.

Oregon at one stage looked like there were destined to head back to the BCS National Championship game before a rainy night in Eugene allowed Stanford to come to down and shut down one of the most prolific offense in college football and clear the way for the eventual SEC Champions to play Notre Dame in Miami. That 17-14 OT defeat to the Cardinals would prove to be Oregon's only loss and the only time this season they failed to score 40 points or more. The Ducks beat 6 other bowl-bound teams in the regular season and secured their ticket to the BCS with a 48-24 victory in the Civil War game against Oregon State. This could very well be Head Coach Chip Kelly's last appearance in charge of the Ducks as with 7 Head Coaching vacancies in the NFL, he's thought to be a man in high demand. Oregon's spread option offense means they have a lot of rushing yards, 323.3 per game leaves the 3rd in the country, and although Kenjon Barner has totalled 1624 yards and 21 touchdowns, quarterback Marcus Mariota still threw for 2511 yards and 30 touchdowns although he also added 690 yards rushing for 4 scores. Defensively the Ducks haven't been too bad and only give up 381.7 yards per game, good for 22 points per game. Considering they've faced some decent opposition, that's not too shabby.

Kansas State won a share the Big-12 Championship with (11)Oklahoma despite beating the Sooners in Norman early in the season. After consecutive wins over West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU, it looked like the Wildcats were on course for the big game. They were ranked number 2 by the BCS when they rolled into Waco to face Baylor, but on the same night that Oregon fell to Stanford, the Wildcats were beaten, this time 52-14 by a Baylor squad that we've already seen this postseason crush UCLA 49-26. That could've derailed Kansas State, but they finished the job the next week, beating Texas 42-24 to secure their spot in this game. Collin Klein has run the offense, joining an exclusive club of quarterbacks with 50 career rushing touchdowns, adding 22 this season to his NCAA FBS record 27 last year. He's also passed for 2490 yards and 15 TDs and was ably helped by tailback John Hubert who added 892 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns of his own. Hubert hasn't been much of a threat receiving out of the backfield, so Kansas State will rely on Chris Harper (786 yards) and Tyler Lockett (652 yards) to make big plays downfield. The Wildcats have been woeful defending the pass, surrendering 255.8 yards per game, but they have made 18 interceptions, and they do rank 17th in the nation in terms of rushing defense, conceding just 119.6 yards per game. That may prove crucial towards the end of this game as they've also racked up 30 sacks and 71 tackles for loss against some pretty good offense teams this year. Defensive end Meshak Williams has been the main impact player with 9.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss, so Oregon best be on the lookout for him.

FOR OREGON TO WIN
Keep the pace up, keep the Wildcats guessing. Oregon has had almost all of it's success under Chip Kelly because they play fast. They are almost last in the nation in time of possession at only 28 minutes per game, but their 989 offense plays means they execute a play on average every 20.5 seconds. When you compare that to Kansas State's 29.8 seconds per play, if the Ducks keep up the pressure on the Wildcats defense, they may struggle. Due to the spread option they run, the Wildcats will have to make a lot of open field tackles, and that plays into the hands of the well organized and well drilled Oregon squad.

FOR KANSAS STATE TO WIN
Give Klein plenty of freedom. Klein has made a lot of yards on the ground and plenty more through the air, so you have to trust one of the toughest QBs in college football to be able to make a decision during the game. He needs to be able to read the defense and if he sees that mismatch, he has to challenge it. In some places, Oregon have made comprises for speed over power, and at time, Klein will have to put the ball under his arm and run straight at the Oregon front seven. Whether or not he can continue to make yards is irrelevant, he needs to slow Oregon down, and doing that starts with keeping his offense on the field. The Ducks don't take long to score points, so Klein has to continue to tick over the scoreboard when he is on the field and try to keep Oregon playing catch up.

VERDICT
This comes down to the same questions we were asking before the 2011 National Championship game between the Ducks and Cam Newton's Auburn (where are they now?) whether Kansas State can deal with the high speed offense of Oregon and whether they can continue to keep pace with the scoreboard. The Wildcats defense, particularly run-stopping is not quite as good as the Auburn defense was in 2011, giving up 119.6 yards compared to the 109 yards Auburn defense, but the difference two years ago was the huge game that Nick Fairley had with 3 tackles for loss, including a safety and a forced fumble. I don't think Kansas State have such a dominant player although if Meshak Williams plays like Jadaveon Clowney did in the Outback Bowl it may be a different story. Good coaching is rewarded in this game and so I go with Oregon. They were a bit overawed with the big occasion two years ago, and having had that experience, they come back to Glendale to set the record straight.

ADVICE
Oregon -8.5
Under 75 points

DRINKING GAME
1 drink: Any reference to Ducks migrating south.
2 drinks: The Duck gets his push-up number wrong
Finish it: Meshak Williams takes an Oregon player's helmet off in a tackle.