Tuesday 1 January 2013

Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

Tuesday January 1st, 13:00 ET (18:00 GMT)
Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
(7)Georgia Bulldogs vs. (16)Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Capital One Bowl, or Consolation Bowl has been played since 1947 starting out as the Tangerine Bowl. With the exception of 1973 when it moved to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, it has been played in the Citrus Bowl. The game usually features the 1st non-BCS team in the SEC and the 1st non-BCS side in the Big-Ten. This season, the game featured the losers of each conference's championship game, Georgia coming off a very tight loss to (2)Alabama and Nebraska trying to recover from a 70-31 humiliation at the hands of Wisconsin. Not only are the Cornhuskers attempting to rebound from that beating, they also lost last year's game to (10)South Carolina.

Georgia have been excellent this year both offensively and defensively ranking 27th in total offense with 458.3 yards and 16th in scoring defense with 18.8 points. They recorded signature wins over Vanderbilt and (3)Florida, conceding only 12 points combined. That led them to 11-1 and a place in the SEC championship game against the defending National Champions the Alabama Crimson Tide. That game was effectively a play-in game for this year's BCS National Championship game, and despite leading 21-18 going into the fourth quarter, they finished 4 yards short of Miami. Aaron Murray has been excellent at times this season, especially leading that final drive against the Tide. He's passed for 3466 yards and 31 TDs and Tavarres King has been a big part of that, accumulating 846 yards and 8 touchdowns. Todd Gurley has paced the ground game racking up 1260 yards for his 16 scores. The Georgia offense should look to the run as Nebraska gave up 539 yards rushing to Wisconsin. At any cost, they should stay away from throwing the ball to Chris Conley. Georgia's defense has been stellar and outside linebacker Jarvis Jones has been huge with 12.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss and he was named SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He needs to be huge in this game along with his fellow LB Alec Ogletree as defensive tackle John Jenkins has been ruled academically ineligible leaving a hole on the defensive line.

Nebraska dropped games early in their schedule to (17)UCLA and that Ohio State, but they strung together a six game winning streak to finish the regular season, beating (18)Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State to reach the Big-Ten title game but they flopped on the big stage in Indianapolis (I can emphasize with that) and were thumped by the Badgers. Junior QB Taylor Martinez has 2667 passing yards and 973 yards on the ground for 31 total touchdowns. Running backs Ameer Abdullah and Rex Burkhead have added 1089 and 535 yards respectively to create the 8th best running game in the country. The passing game hasn't quite been as dominant, but Kenny Bell has managed 803 yards and another 8 touchdowns. The Cornhuskers have the best passing defense in the country giving up just 148.2 yards per game, but they have given up 13 TDs, so they will need to tighten up in the redzone. Their rushing defense has been shown up of late, allowing 25 TDs and 194.8 yards per game, crucially in their 3 losses this season, they've given up over 1300 rushing yards. That won't do in this game.

FOR GEORGIA TO WIN
After watching Nebraska's three losses, Georgia have to run the ball. The numbers don't lie in this case. Murray has been excellent this season and he's already faced the 4th ranked passing defense in the country and nearly came away with the win. The threat of Todd Gurley who has 100 yard rushing games against the 1st and 6th rushing defenses looms large against the Nebraska defense and that will be the difference in this game.

FOR NEBRASKA TO WIN
Despite their success running the ball this season, they have to pass to win this game. They can't allow Jones and Ogletree to stop runners in the backfield. Martinez has to get the ball out of his hands quickly, and if he gets in trouble, he can then use his feet. Although Georgia have a great pass rush, the secondary hasn't been great giving up 11 touchdowns. The difference for Nebraska has to be motivation. They were destroyed by Wisconsin, they come into this as huge underdogs, and they have a point to prove as nobody (including me) thinks they can win this game. John Jenkins is a big miss for Georgia, and late in the game, that could be a godsend for Martinez.

VERDICT
Both teams are coming off a loss, but Georgia have a lot less to fix before they can win this one. Nebraska's embarrassment against the run in big games this season is the telling factor. Todd Gurley led the SEC in rushing yards, and as he goes into the game with 1260 yards, he could finish the season with 1500 yards against this Cornhuskers defense.

ADVICE
Georgia -8.5
Over 61.5 points

DRINKING GAME
1 drink: 539 is mentioned.
2 drinks: Georgia is 1st and goal at the 4.
Finish it: Somebody mixes up Ogletree with Oglethorpe.

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